Ph.D. Oleg Maltsev. Epidemic and post-epidemic models
Certain stages play the role of obstacles for any epidemic and human disease. Human beings have a robust multilevel protection system of their own. Any epidemic descends “from top to bottom” crossing echelons of human protection, or it infiltrates on a certain level similar to an “entry from a side,” which excludes the necessity to pass through levels.
The top-level is related to “amalgam” (“I”, psychoanalysis). The main characteristic of this level is that conditions are created for a particular environment — a world where certain things are considered to be normal or abnormal. If one considers COVID-19 through the prism of the epidemic model organization – its first “amalgam” level corresponds to an entire collection of movies about the epidemic produced by different motion picture companies in recent years. These films have created a certain environment of normalization of the epidemic. For example, the scenario of “Contagion” (2011) corresponds to the current epidemic; the only difference is that “Contagion” depicts that the virus is spread in the U.S. but not globally. The next level is the human psyche, a powerful “spring” of admittance of different kinds of scenarios. Usually, mass media is used as a tool to pass through this level; it helps to pass this echelon of human defense system, as a consequence of which, he believes in something and remains in fear. The next level relates to psychobiology, disease prevention level — immune system, and psychosomatics. In the context of the current situation, preventive measures are not actively conducted, and no institute is in charge of informing people about how to strengthen their immune system.
In view of the fact that people’s immune systems work differently, it is quite easy to get through this echelon. The next level is physiology, it is directly linked to the infection itself. In other words, it means that preceding echelons of protections were passed through before he got infected. At this level, one is in awe that there will be no appropriate treatments and no way to recover from illness. He feels helpless — one-on-one with an obscure disease.
The last level is when a person is already ill. By this time, he is not the only sick person, the number of infected people increases; they infect others, and the epidemiological situation comes into the scene.
Considering this tactical model of the epidemic unfold and comparing it with the current events, clearly shows that this is how COVID-19 was spread out. Initially, people were “prepared” by dozens of films about the epidemic; the media was actively involved, together with the fact that people are not knowledgeable about preventive measures (which were not conducted by governments nor other entities).
Living in fear and anxiety in an infected environment is the primary psychological problem; desperate search for a vaccine that does not exist does not solve anything (there is no flu vaccine; otherwise, it would have appeared long ago). Even if the vaccine is found, it will have an emotional effect only — since some viruses invariably mutate and some are the product of lab experimentation. Therefore, any vaccination is purely psychological; it will never guarantee that a person will be resistant to a disease. There is no better vaccine than an immune system of a person himself. Searching for the treatment when people are already sick, instead of developing them beforehand, leads to traumatic effects and group infection. When people get diseased and feel consequences faster than they recover, it “traumatizes” society and heavily affects the society itself, different institutions and the economy of the state. On the assumption that 80% of the population is in bed with an acute respiratory viral infection businesses, factories, and many other establishments stop functioning as they did.
Since viruses are intangible, there is no way to fight epidemics in a way people envision. Sooner or later, some die, some recover and gradually come back to normal; it is not new, that is how it has been in past years and centuries. It is crucial, though, that treating people when the disease has already spread is a guarantee of a new epidemic. To prevent an epidemic from taking place again, it is necessary to return to the top of the model — to the first level of the epidemic (“I” – amalgam level), and do not adopt an epidemic as a norm of living, i.e. marketing or a political tool.
Media work must be regulated by states and make them financially liable for disinformation. Given that media reports concern the state and national security, and it is revealed that particular media outlets accepted payment for the dissemination of misleading information, they should be held criminally liable for it.
The prevention of diseases is crucial and necessary in our communities; in the best-case scenario, preventive measures and their implementation should be regularly broadcasted. Meanwhile, the development of effective treatment methods should take place before any potential emergency, just so the medical sector has time to handle the situation at an early stage. Society should be freed from post-traumatic syndrome, a psychosocial phenomenon that implies that such an epidemic will not happen again. Governments must bear severe responsibility for incapacity to function in the conditions of the epidemic and control the situation; if that is the case, it would be fair for an incapable government to resign.
What to expect after the epidemic is over? Reasonably, during an emergency, no one can promise anything; almost all scientists refrain from predictions. For lack of a better word, it is about a “PIN-code” that no longer serves in the circumstances unfolded today. Many people do not believe the promises of governments and are tired of restrictions on their rights and freedoms. “Getting rid of the problem” is not their purpose any longer. Instead of the vision for the future, the level reflexes and instincts reign in the front. “New society” that will occur after the pandemic will be offered a “new PIN-code,” in other words, a new approach. Many have already started using the “Media-Emergency-Action” triangle, but it is not a new pin-code, but a way of justification before society.
Nevertheless, in the post-pandemic period, a new “PIN code” will be found to drive modern society into hyperreality again (Baudrillard). Let us suppose what kind of a new “PIN code” might be suggested in the post-pandemic era? Apparently, what has happened is going to be remembered for a long time; thus, the first element of the “PIN code” will be security. The necessity to introduce changes into the legislative system will, in turn, restrict human rights. People are inclined to sacrifice their freedoms, agree with the changes as long as emergencies as such will not take place again. But no laws will stop people that are after power, which has been a recurrent course at all times.
The second element of the “PIN code” presumably will be a guaranteed future instead of a dream. That is, no matter what happens, this future is warranted. The credit system does not allow people to fulfill their dreams anymore. However, consumer society cannot exist without credit; it always needs something like a loan. There will probably be direct payments by installments bypassing the banking sector (related to those who will be able to trade their resources circumventing the banking system, leading to the collapse of the latter). Extensive direct installment payments would be possible with long-term contracts only. The current state of affairs is driving the breakdown of the banking system and its replacement by a multi-vector free monetary and electronic system of money. Moreover, the wider is the spectrum of backward calculation, the more people will agree on these conditions influencing manufacturers to be in immediate contact with the consumer.
If the pandemic is the antecedent of the banking system’s breakdown, then banks will become useless. Consequently, all money in the world automatically becomes criminal. Convertible currencies will disappear, the only currency remaining to be an e-money. If cash ceases its circulation, there will be no other money, except for cards leading to an open monetary electronic system without banks.
Considering the professional activities of people, presumably, many will rush to search for jobs that would maintain their positions in any crisis. Most people will search for remote job opportunities so that they are not at risk of “losing a job.” The economy, in general, will become even more globalized. This new “PIN code” will be the commencement of a “different” society. It will no longer be a consumer society, but global communications society. The “state” and its permanence as an institution with all its outcomes will be jeopardized. For instance, revolutions and mass revolts against the establishment will arise more frequently with a subtle goal to begin a different form of human existence. People do not want to depend on governments incapable of making effective decisions and providing a decent way of life. We already see how businesses are holding more and more power separately from the state. To conclude, it is most likely that the current world order will fall apart. Perhaps, the global order will return to the form of some principalities (in the global and economic sense), presumably organized from large organizations to small ones. There is no doubt that the world will never be the same after the pandemic, but the ideas outlined in this paper are merely hypotheses.
Ph.D. Oleg Maltsev
Author, researcher, criminologist, psychologist. Academician of Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. Founder and director of The Memory Institute, head of Expeditionary Corps. He is an author of numerous books in areas such as applied history, sociology, depth psychology, philosophy, criminalistics, criminology.
